Monday, January 15, 2007

US Economy Surgeing

Story: "Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called "soft landing" may be over and growth is accelerating.
...
Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales -- all key contributors to economic activity.

Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm's prior call for just 2.0 percent growth.

"After slowing in November, the economy seems to have regained its stride," Harris said.

"With the last of the major data in, we are now revising fourth quarter GDP to an above-trend 3.3 percent. A wide range of indicators have been stronger than expected. Most important have been the strong consumption data and the surprising improvement in the trade balance."


A slow down in the economy? We're still growing folks, the largest and most productive economy this world has ever seen.
Capitalism rocks ya'll.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Capitalism rocks? Yes, but America is socialist now. Where does Social Security and Medicare and other such programs fall in Capitalism? The United States government is over 8 TRILLION dollars in debt. And who knows how deep in debt your average Joe American is. A consumer oriented economy will only last as long as the consumers can keep spending. The trade deficit is a record highs. The Federal Reserve has stopped publishing the M-3 money supply charts, so we have no way of knowing how much money they are printing up. I don’t mean to rain on your parade, but I hate to see anyone, Christians especially, get caught by this by surprise. Please read this article. www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=pmp The thing that I want you to note is the chart comparing the Dow to gold, which is real money, not that worthless paper the Fed prints for 3¢ each.

Sorry to sound so depressing.

Daniel

Palm boy said...

Where do social security and medicare fit in? Well, they're part of the government, not the economic system known as capitalism. They're wrong and a waste of money, but if you'll please notice, the economy plows along despite this colossal waste of money.

The federal deficit? Please tell you don't believe that load of baloney. I posted on this very topic, in response to you, as a matter of fact, back in October.
http://pushbackignorance.blogspot.com/2006/10/deficit-us-economy.html

Americans are in debt, yet our net worth continues to rise. I fail to see the problem.
The trade deficit is not at an all time high, it just fell in the last quarter!

Ok, so I've looked at the chart and the article. What I see mostly is a man who was wrong about the upcoming markets, and seeks to rationalize his faulty prediction by comparing the market to gold prices, something no one else does. What is lost in his mixture is the riseing price of gold. Compared to that, of course the market will not preform as well.

Just the same, we've been using currency not redemable for gold for nearly 80 years, and yet, the bottom has not fallen out of the dollar. Strange, isn't it, that predictions of doom can last for so long, and yet still be so wrong.

Anonymous said...

In regards to Social security and those things, I was just trying to point out that the U.S. is pretty much socialist now. And yes, the economy does APPEAR to sail right along, but what about the foundation? It is cracked beyond repair.

Even if the deficit is growing more slowly, it is still growing. (By the way, I am not anti Bush in most areas.) And how, if you are going more and more into debt is your net worth growing? You do realize that the dollar is worth about 95% less than it was in 1913 right? Our net worth has gone up? I call it inflation. And the trade deficit is still in the vicinity of its record highs set a few months back.

First, I would like to know where the man was wrong. Precious metals do not generally move very much against each other, they move against the Dollar and other fiat currencies. Know why? Because gold and silver are money, and they have a pretty stable value. The dollar and the other world fiat currencies have no value other than how much confidence we put in them. The dollar was still tied to gold up until 1979 (I think) when it was officially taken off the gold standard and foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for gold. Even though Americans could no longer get gold, they still had silver certificates, and, while not as valuable as gold, silver is still money. Back then, gasoline was 25 cents per gallon, give or take a couple cents, and silver was one dollar per oz. That meant that one oz. of silver could buy 4 gallons of gas. That ended in 1965. Today silver is in the $12 range and gasoline costs $2.50, give or take a little bit, depending on where in the country you live. Wow, would you look at that. One oz. of silver still buys about 4 gallons of gas. Coincidence? The bottom has not YET fallen out of the dollar, but it is in the process of happening. And it won’t just be the dollar either. Most other nations have as bad or worse foundations than the ole buck. It is my firm belief that most, if not all of the world currencies form the dollar, to the Euro, to the Chinese Yuan, will all collapse within a couple of years. The thing that makes it hard to predict is what the governments can and will do to keep the currencies afloat, even a little longer. That is what has thrown off even smart people like Larry Burkett and others like him.

This whole thing is what our founding fathers tried to set up barriers to prevent. The thing that they didn’t count on was that generations like ours’ and our fathers’, generations with no sense ant all and a total disregard for God would come along. In Article I Section X of the constitution of the United States it says ‘No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.’
I would especially like to note the line ‘No state shall…coin money; emit bills of credit; make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.’ That was in there for this reason. If you can get your hands on it, I would highly recommend the book entitled ‘Honest Money, Biblical Principles of Money and Banking’ by Dr. Gary North, a good Christian man. When Judah went into captivity, their money was largely dross. (Which just showed how far they had turned form God.) When Rome fell, their money had been totally debased. When the British Empire crumbled, their money had been largely debased. Who are we, foolish, proud Americans, to think that we can possibly escape the fate of other nations, older and stronger than we, who did the same thing.

Sorry to be so long winded.

Daniel

Anonymous said...

In case you want to read it, I found the book ‘Honest Money’ in a free e-book form at www.freebooks.com. When you get there, scroll down to the bottom of the page and click on ‘Page Two’. Then click on ‘Main Area’ at the top of the next page. On the left side of your screen, there will be a list of categories for you to choose from. Click on ‘Subject’ which is under ‘Books by’. Scroll down to ‘economics’, the books are in alphabetical order. Click on ‘Honest Money’, and then click on ‘This Book in HTML’.

I hope this book helps.

Daniel

Palm boy said...

I don't know if you really read the story... The deficit wasn't growing more slowly, it was shrinking. By more then 50%, as a matter of fact.
Ok, if you are going to keep bandying around economic figures, please give me a source. I was not aware, nor am now aware, that todays money is only worth 5% of what it was in 1913.
Yes, our networth has risen, partly due to the riseing real estate market, as well as the rapidly improving stock market.

Here's a question. Why exactly is a trade deficit harmful? I'm pretty sure you personally run an incredibly high 'trade deficit'. Where do you get your food?
How much of it do you grow yourself?
Where do you get your gas?
How much of it do you drill yourself?
Where did you get your car?
How much of it did you make yourself?
Where do you get your water?
How much of it do you purify yourself?
Those are all trade deficits, yet you willingly participate. Your not harmed, rather, you benifit immensly from the situation. Why is it different on a national level?

Precious metals don't move against each other, rather, they move in relation to our currency. In the event you hadn't noticed, the price of gold has risen immensly in the past decade, which is where the stock market contrasts with the gold.
What again, is the problem with a 'non-gold standard' currency? It seems like its worked pretty well.
Daniel, are you trying to tell me this:
The US dollar, the Euro, the Peso, the Yuan, and the Pound will all colapse as a currency within the next 5 years? You will pardon me if I do not believe you.

Why did the Roman empire collapse? Compleate apathy from its citizens, and a total disregard for miltary responsiblities. What currency has to do with that, I don't know.

Why did the British empire, at one point which the sun never set on, shrink? World War I. While victorius, the colonial system was shattered in the process, and England was no longer able to defend its holdings.

Daniel, I don't know why your so pessimistic on the economy, but people have been predicting doom and destruction for years and years, and yet, we are still in a good situation, with only 5% of the nation without a job.

Anonymous said...

I read over it. The federal government is in debt beyond its ability to repay. While the official expenditures may be going down, the unofficial ones are the killers. Bush is doing the right thing in cutting taxes, which does increase revenue, but he has not vetoed (to the best of my knowledge) even one piece of spending legislation. I do not blame Bush for this economic chaos, I blame congress and the federal reserve for it. I found stuff at www.bls.gov, but I didn’t remember where to find the chart that I was looking for. I did, however, find a cute little calculator-a-ma-jiggy that gives you the value of past years dollar value in today’s money. Go to the site and under ‘Inflation and Consumer Spending’ you will see ‘Inflation Calculator’. Click on it and enter .05 in 1913 dollars. Click ‘calculate’ and vola! Another site is www.libertydollar.org. Now keep in mind that I do not recommend any of their stuff, but look around and you will find all sorts of interesting information. And I would especially encourage you to read this article. www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/greene032104.html The real estate market is going down the tubes, and will probably only accelerate in the coming year.

As for the trade deficit, let me correct a few errors. I run a ‘trade surplus’ I you will. I have a job, I export my time and receive payment for it. Now with my money, I import things that I need. Food, cloths, etc, but I am exporting more than I import, so I have a trade surplus, so I am getting wealthier bit by bit. (By the way, I live in the country, so I produce my own water, but I get your drift) I am not against trading with other nations, but now let’s take our little scenario and assume that I start importing more things than I export than I must eventually go into debt. And suppose that I keep this up for a long period of time. How long can I last without changing my spending habits or filing for bankruptcy? That is where we are in America.

All fiat currencies have fallen vs. gold, some more and some less, but all have fallen. Gold, which has been the currency of choice from the time that God created the earth until a few decades ago, has been becoming more valuable compared to any and all paper assets. Something that I think is kind of funny in a sad way, have you seen ‘Monopoly, Here and Now’? Well, back in the 1920-30’s when Monopoly was made, the $2,000 for Boardwalk was a LOT of money. Now, in everyday business, what is $2,000? So why not make it $20,000,000? Now THAT is a lot of money. That $20,000,000 today can still only buy the same thing that the $2,000 could buy yesterday.

The problem with a non-gold currency? No foundation. The same problem as a society that has no anchor to God’s word, it will fall apart.

You are pardoned, that is what I thought when I first heard about this, but please seriously research this deeply. The establishment press will not report on this until it is too late. A good site for news in general is www.wnd.com. It is a good conservative site.

The debasing of the money is one of the last signs of rot in a nation, and hastens its demise.

The US does use a lot of shadow statistics that we didn’t used to use so it LOOKS to me that unemployment could be higher. I have read (but this is hearsay), that unemployment is as high as 12%, but I don’t know. God has stripped America of her wealth in retribution for her sins, and when will we fall over the edge?

Daniel

Palm boy said...

Daniel, you've brought up some interesting points. I've got the next couple of days rather loaded with other things, but instead of posting another rebuttal here right now, I'm going to do some reaserch into this topic. I should be back to you monday evening.
In the meantime, I'll post on some other news, to keep things moveing.

Anonymous said...

Good idea. Things like this take time to research so don’t rush it. Like I said, I thought that this stuff was a bunch of baloney when I first heard about it too.

Keep up the good reporting.

Daniel

Anonymous said...

Sorry to keep bugging you, but I have been finding good articles today. www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willettalway011707.html

If you want to choose the articles for yourself, than go to www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html. At www.kitco.com, you can skip all the charts etc, and scroll down to the commentaries section, there are some good articles there.

Daniel

Anonymous said...

I haven't had time to read everyone's comments. However I did notice someone stated that the Constitution forbade the creation of currency. That's not true. The Constitution forbade STATES from creating their own currency. This was written in so that there would be a uniform currency and not 13 different currencies. It had nothing to do with preventing currency. America was printing money for years under the Articles of Confederation before the Constitution was written.

Please do not take this as an endorsement of either side. I'm thankful that my Hope is not dependent on what the economy does.

Anonymous said...

Faithful Servant

What you have to remember is that most of the power in this country was designed to rest with the states. The federal government did nothing with money, except mint gold and silver and, for the pennies and half-cents, copper coins. And it didn’t say that they couldn’t make their own currency, just that the currency that they did make had to be either silver or gold. Notice, ‘make anything BUT gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.’ Even railways issued their money, which was within their right to do so, but it had to be backed by silver or gold. The beauty of the method was that it made it very hard to set up a central bank, thus controlling the money, and thus giving you almost unlimited power. The site that I mentioned, www.libertydollar.org, is a throwback to the old system. Even you could make your own money, provided you backed it with silver or gold. Thirteen different currencies were fine with our founding fathers, IF it was backed by silver or gold. There is the difference between today’s Federal Reserve Notes (there is nothing federal about the Federal Reserve) and the gold backed currency. Ninety years ago, if you looked at a twenty dollar bill, you would see written on it ‘This certifies that there have been deposited in the treasury of the United States of America twenty dollars in gold coin payable to the bearer on demand’. Now that’s money. Let’s go back 50 years ago. On the top left side you will see the words ‘this note is legal tender for all debts public and private and is redeemable in lawful money at the United States Treasury, or at any Federal Reserve Bank’. Hmmm, might be money, might not be, depends on what ‘lawful money’ means. Take a twenty dollar bill out of your pocket and on the top left side you will see the words ‘this note is legal tender for all debts public and private’. Backed by NOTHING! Which one would you take? I’ll take the gold note, thank-you-very-much!

Whew! One little comment and I get carried away. Sorry about that. I would encourage you to read this whole discussion, as it will affect you greatly if I’m right.

Daniel

Anonymous said...

Faithful Servant

What you have to remember is that most of the power in this country was designed to rest with the states. The federal government did nothing with money, except mint gold and silver and, for the pennies and half-cents, copper coins. And it didn’t say that they couldn’t make their own currency, just that the currency that they did make had to be either silver or gold. Notice, ‘make anything BUT gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.’ Even railways issued their money, which was within their right to do so, but it had to be backed by silver or gold. The beauty of the method was that it made it very hard to set up a central bank, thus controlling the money, and thus giving you almost unlimited power. The site that I mentioned, www.libertydollar.org, is a throwback to the old system. Even you could make your own money, provided you backed it with silver or gold. Thirteen different currencies were fine with our founding fathers, IF it was backed by silver or gold. There is the difference between today’s Federal Reserve Notes (there is nothing federal about the Federal Reserve) and the gold backed currency. Ninety years ago, if you looked at a twenty dollar bill, you would see written on it ‘This certifies that there have been deposited in the treasury of the United States of America twenty dollars in gold coin payable to the bearer on demand’. Now that’s money. Let’s go back 50 years ago. On the top left side you will see the words ‘this note is legal tender for all debts public and private and is redeemable in lawful money at the United States Treasury, or at any Federal Reserve Bank’. Hmmm, might be money, might not be, depends on what ‘lawful money’ means. Take a twenty dollar bill out of your pocket and on the top left side you will see the words ‘this note is legal tender for all debts public and private’. Backed by NOTHING! Which one would you take? I’ll take the gold note, thank-you-very-much!

Whew! One little comment and I get carried away. Sorry about that. I would encourage you to read this whole discussion, as it will affect you greatly if I’m right.

Daniel

Anonymous said...

Why did it just post me twice?

Daniel

Palm boy said...

Faithful, thanks for the comment.

Daniel, I don't know. It double posted me on the main page as well..